INITIAL THOUGHTS, NBA WEDNESDAY 11/30

Here are my initial thoughts on the 10-game slate for Wednesday, November 30.  I'll be updating as the day goes on.

GUARDS
So much to like among the guards tonight.  Here are a few I've noticed right off that bat.

 

Russell Westbrook ($8,600 vs WAS) checks in as the most expensive player on the slate and for good reason.  He's been an absolute beast all season, but especially so the past couple weeks with three straight triple-doubles and five in his last seven games.  He's failed to score fewer than 53.25 points in his last ten games.  Washington has defended the PG position well so far (DVP 6), there really is no defending Westbrook these days.  OKC has the third highest team total on the night at 109.0.  Westbrook will be apart of quite a bit of that total.  He's got an insane usage rate of 44.9% on the season.  Lock and load in all formats.

Dennis Schroeder ($4,750 @ PHO) is in a prime spot tonight and his price is very reasonable.  He's been somewhat of a disappointment to date, but he's been coming on of late, going for over 30 points in his last two.  His usage is up 4.0% in his last three as well. So he's trending in the right direction.  The Hawks matchup against the Suns is a big pace up spot for Atlanta and they have the fourth highest team total on the night at 107.5, nearly six points over their season average.  Schroeder has gone over the 30-minute mark in consecutive games.  If he does so on Wednesday he should crush value in this prime matchup.

Jimmy Butler ($6,600 vs LAL) is another guy in a super prime matchup on Wednesday.  Everyone knows the Lakers struggle against wing players.  They rank 24th DVP against SGs and 27th DVP against SFs.  Butler has it made in either case.  He carries a great usage rate of 29.0% for a non-PG.  The Bulls are projected to score 111.0 points which is 5.7 more than their season average.  It's also a pace up matchup.  Only concern is Chicago is favored by ten points, but Butler hasn't played fewer than 30-minutes in any of his last ten games so he should be able to get enough run to justify his price tag tonight.

Goran Dragic ($4,850 @ DEN) is just underpriced in my opinion.  He played 37 minutes on Monday in his first game back from an elbow injury, scoring 56.50 fantasy points.  He should be in line for big minutes again on Wednesday against a Denver team who rank 29th against the PG position.  The Heat are in a pace up game and are expected to score 3+ points over their season average.  Dragic will likely find his way into my lineup.

Jeff Teague ($5,500 @ POR) is yet another PG in a prime matchup.  Paul George has already been ruled out of the game on Wednesday, meaning Teague’s usage rate will no doubt increase.  Teague has failed to crack double digits in actual points the past two games.  That streak is destined to end against the defense of Damien Lilliard.  In a similar spot a few games ago in a pace up matchup against Westbrook and OKC with Paul George sitting, Teague fired in 60.25 fantasy points.  Don’t know he’ll get to that level but he should easily hit value even at his elevated price tag.

Others I like initially are Rajon Rondo ($5,100 vs LAK) as yet another PG in a great matchup, Zach Levine ($4,850 vs NYK) who has been on fire lately pickup up the slack for the slumping Andrew Wiggins, and maybe some guys like Andrew Harrison ($3,300 @ TOR), Rodney Stuckey ($3,500 vs POR) and Sergio Rodriguez ($3,800 vs SAC) for value.

FORWARDS

Upon first glance will probably be looking for value at the forward position tonight.

Kent Bazemore ($3,900 @ PHO) is a very volatile player to say the least.  Just look at his game logs from the past week.  Two games over 30 fantasy points, two games under 10.  His matchup tonight is just too good to pass up, especially at his insanely low price.  Phoenix is a pace up spot matchup for the Hawks. The Suns rank 26th against SFs.  It won’t take much for Baze to hit value at his price.  If he cracks 30 again he crushes!

Glenn Robinson III ($3,600 @ POR) will likely draw another start with Paul George being ruled out tonight.  In four starts for PG13, Robinson has averaged nearly 40 minutes and 30 fantasy points.  He’s almost a must play at his price as we try to squeeze in as many of the guards into the lineup tonight.

Paul Milsap ($5,700 @ PHO) is slumping lately.  That makes him somewhat risky.  But again, he’s going up against the slump-busting Suns in a phenomenal matchup.  He has a good floor with his all-around game.  If Milsap can start knocking down some shots he has 50+ point upside.  Don’t be surprised if he hits that mark tonight.

Otto Porter ($4,800 @ OKC) has been a consistent point producer this season.  He’s in a matchup tonight that is up a little in pace and points projected for the Wizards.  OKC is 20th in DVP against SFs.  Porter doesn’t carry the highest usage rate but he’s an adept rebounder which increases his floor.  I like him in all formats.

For extreme value I’m looking at Troy Williams ($3,000 @ TOR).  He’s played over 31 minutes in back-to-back games.  With Vince Carter and Mike Conley out again that should be the case again tonight.  There is blowout risk in this game but that could actually benefit Williams.  He’s site minimum price so he doesn’t need to do much to hit value which I think he does easily tonight.

CENTERS

Mason Plumlee ($4,900 vs IND) has a rising price tag but for good reason.  He’s been extremely consistent this season, scoring at least 26 fantasy points in each of his last nine games.  His ceiling isn’t as appealing as you might like, but he draws a supreme matchup against the Pacers who rank 26th DVP against centers.  The Blazers have the highest team total on the night at 111.5.  You could do worse than Plumlee tonight.

There is some value available tonight at other positions, so Demarcus Cousins ($7,900 @PHI) should be mentioned.  Cousins is playing extremely well of late, scoring over 70 fantasy points in two of his last six games.  He’s also topped 32 actual points in four straight games.  Philadelphia is not the best team defensively, but Joel Embib is expected to play so I may temper my expectations for Cousins tonight.  But if the value finds its way into the lineup, Cousins may as well.

Myles Turner ($5,100 @ POR) is yet another Pacer in a good spot tonight in Portland.  The Blazers just cannot defend the center position, ranking 23rd on the year.  Turner should see a usage increase without PG13 in the lineup.  His minutes have been down the past couple games but his production has actually been up.  If he can get back over 30 minutes in this spot he could put up a monster stat line.