Friday, December 2, 2016

NBA INITIAL THOUGHTS, FRIDAY 12/1

A nine game slate awaits us on Friday night with one late night hammer as the Rockets travel to Denver.  Got our fair share of studs to choose from as AD, Harden, Lebron and Cousins are all in action.  First glance looks like a good slate so let’s see what we can find.

GUARDS
With Jerryd Bayless ruled out tonight, we can look to Sergio Rodriguez ($3,800) for some salary relief.  He isn’t in the best matchup in a pace down matchup against Orlando, but DJ Augustin is a PG we can target.  It looks tight for value at guard tonight and Sergio may be as low as we can go.

Jamal Murray ($4,400) looks like a good play tonight against Houston, who number one can’t defend the SG position, and number two are coming off a double-OT game last night at Golden State.  The Rockets went all out in that game and should be understandably flat travelling to Mile High Denver in a back-to-back.  Murray for his part has been on fire lately, going for over 32 fantasy points in three of his last four.

One guy who looks to be underpriced is Ish Smith ($4,500).  He’s actually been fairly consistent this year, and he’s been playing his best basketball of late.  It’s time to get onboard before it’s too late when Reggie Jackson comes back.  I like to target PGs against this Hawks this year so Smith makes for a good play tonight in my estimation.

Can we play both Kyle Lowry ($6,000) and DeMar DeRozan ($6,600) in the same game?  I say why not.  Look at this matchup against the Lakers.  They are terrible against both PGs and SGs.  
It will tie up a chunk of the salary cap to roster both but I can see both exceeding value tonight.

James Harden ($8,350) is obviously in play again tonight against Denver, but I’m passing on the Beard tonight.  That double-OT game last night seems like it could make this a letdown spot for a guy costing as much as he does.

FORWARDS
I think this is a game that Blake Griffin ($6,550) breaks out of his mini-slump.  He was rolling right along with fantasy scores over 40 for six straight games before falling below that threshold his last four.  I predict he gets back on rack tonight against a New Orleans defense that is ranked 24th DvP against the PF position.

I don’t like the matchup tonight for Kyrie Irving.  I don’t like the matchup tonight for Lebron.  So who is gonna thrive for the Cavs tonight?  How about Kevin Love ($6,450).  He obviously has the best matchup of the Cleveland three.  Love was off his last game. He needs 40 tonight to hit his value mark and I think he gets there.

Other forwards I like are Evan Fournier ($4,650) tonight against the Sixers?  He’s been playing well and gets a good matchup.  Jae Crowder ($4,400) is back with no minute restriction and has gone for over 30 points his last two games.  Mike Muscala ($3,800) will most certainly be a great low-owned after he shit the bed last time out.  He’s only viable if Paul Milsap sits again.  Finally we can take a look at Sam Dekker ($3,000) for the Rockets who may rest players which would open up minutes.

CENTERS
First thing I notice at the center position tonight is that Joel Embiid ($5,450) is playing so he’s in consideration.  Against the Magic in a pace down game for the Sixers, there is slight hesitation.  But when you factor in his price, his usage and his minutes being increased he seems like a logical target.

With Nikola Jokic questionable to play tonight, that puts Jusuf Nurcic ($4,450) on the radar.  He draws a supreme matchup against the Houston “defense” and would theoretically see a minute and usage increase.  I wish he was priced a little lower but he could make for a decent play.

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