Sunday, December 18, 2016

NFL CASH LINEUP CONSTRUCTION, WEEK 15

My strategy this week is yet again going to center around rostering both DAVID JOHNSON ($6,650) and LEVEON BELL ($6,750).  These two are just so involved in their respective offenses that it's basically like rostering both a RB and WR at the same time.  Of course, locking those two in makes the rest of the lineup build a little more difficult but I don't care.  These two will be in my cash lineup until their pricing makes it impossible to play them both.

This just happens to be a good week to fit both Johnson and Bell in because I'm not really interested in any of the high priced QB options.  Matt Ryan gets the Niners, but how much is he going to throw.  Plus Julio Jones is out of action.  Aaron Rodgers is in terrible weather and he's nursing an injury.  Drew Brees is on the road against a good defense.  Tom Brady is playing in Denver.  Ben Roethlisberger is on the road against Cincinnati where he rarely does well.  Andrew Luck is missing three offensive linemen and Donte Moncrief.  No thank you, no thank you, no thank you, no thank you, no thank you and no thank you.

So where do we land?  My plan is to target bad defenses, so this week I'm rolling with TYROD TAYLOR ($6,500) against the Browns and SAM BRADFORD ($5,300) against the Colts.  Taylor has been very consistent this season, topping 17 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games.  He gets Cleveland this week who are terrible, ranking 31st DVOA against the pass.  They have allowed multiple TDs in five consecutive games.  Plus Taylor adds to his floor with his rushing ability.  I really like Taylor this week.

Bradford is too damn cheap.  At only $5,300, he doesn't really need to do a whole lot to hit value.  In a matchup against Indianapolis, who rank 29th DVOA against the pass while allowing the 3rd most points to opposing QBS, it would take a terrible effort from Bradford not to pay off his price.  I just don't see that happening.

One value play I'm locking in is at the TE position and that's RYAN GRIFFIN ($3,000) at min-price.  With CJ Fiedorowicz ruled out this week, Griffin is in line to see an increased workload.

When I build my cash game lineup, I like to play RBs in the two flex positions.  I do this because their floor is more stable because they are typically going to touch the ball more often than a WR.  So I have some salary to play with this week since I went cheap at QB and TE.  I like LeSean McCoy but he's gonna be a little too expensive.  I thougt about Kenneth Dixon but I think I have enough salary to pay up a little.  I decided on LATAVIUS MURRAY ($5,100) and JORDAN HOWARD ($4,900) in the mid-rang Murray has topped 16 fantasy points in four of his last five games.  He faces off against a Chargers defense who have allowed the seventh most points to opposing RBs.  I like Howard this week in a home game against Green Bay where weather could be a factor.  In ten starts this year, Howard has topped 100 yards in half of those games.  He has a good shot to do it again this week in my opinion.

So that leaves us with having to fill the two WR spots.  Just like the QB position, I'm not overly thrilled with the high end WR options this week.  There were a few mid-range options I liked, but in the end I chose JORDAN MATTHEWS ($4,600) and MARQUIS LEE ($4,400)All the pieces are in place for a high volume day for Matthews.  The Eagles backfield is in shambles.  And when they try to run they are up against a Ravens defense that is the number one ranked unit against the run.  Meaning the Eagles will undoubtedly be forced to pass.  Matthews has double-digit targets in five of his last six games.  I like his chances in this matchup.

As far as Lee goes, it looks like he's overtaken Allen Robinson as the number one receiver in Jacksonville.  Blake Bortles has targeted Lee 7.6 times per game over the last month compared to only 6.0 for Robinson.  Lee has translated those looks into solid production, topping 11 fantasy points in three of his last four games.  While Robinson absorbs all of the opposing team's top coverage, Lee reaps the benefits.

That leaves just enough salary leftover to fit in the HOUSTON TEXANS ($2,800) on defense who face off against the turnover machine known as the aforementioned Blake Bortles.  Jacksonville has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

And that's that.  Played in all the 50/50 contests that were $22 or less.  Hoping my strategy of forcing Johnson and Bell in the lineup works once again.

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