NFL GPP LINEUP CONSTRUCTION, WEEK 15

My strategy when it comes to GPP lineup construction is two-fold.  I like to find correlation play where I pair up a QB with his WR or RB, then I like to target a WR from the team they are playing.  I'm also looking to play guys who I think will be lower owned.  That's not a hard-fast rule but more of a guideline to follow.  It's hard not to roster one or two good plays that other people will be on as well.  But whereas my cash lineup can be all the chalk plays, we need to try and differentiate in at least a few spots in a GPP lineup.  So where does that lead me this week.  Let's take a look.

I really like TYROD TAYLOR ($6,500) this week.  Some would say his upside is limited, but he's up against Cleveland who are terrible against the pass and I like his chances.  I'm pairing him with SAMMY WATKINS ($4,750) who is back healthy.  He scored a TD last week and I'm hoping he does the same this week.  On the other side I'm going with TERRELL PRYOR ($4,600).  While he may have been "garbage" last week, Pryor topped 12 fantasy point in four of his previous five games.

At my other QB spot I'm going with COLIN KAEPERNICK ($6,100).  Here's a case where I think ownership will be low based on Kaps back-to-back disappointing games.  But two games ago he popped for 36 fantasy points, and he went for 26 in two games prior to that.  I'm pairing him with his RB, CARLOS HYDE ($5,200).  Most people will be on the Falcons on the other side of the ball.  I think this will keep ownership down on Hyde as well.  And the thing about Hyde is that even if the Falcons do get out to a lead, he's pretty much assured of touches regardless.  He averages nearly 20 touches a game.  And get this stat, courtesy of Chris Raybon over at Rotogrinders - since Hyde returned from injury in Week 10, 91% of San Francisco’s red zone plays have been either a Kaepernick pass/run or a Hyde run/target.

Another thing I like to do is lock in one of the top RBs on the slate.  This week that guy for me is DAVID JOHNSON ($6,650).  Don't really have to explain David Johnson to you but I like him better than LeVeon Bell this week.  He's at home against the Saints in what should be a high scoring affair.  He "struggled" last week and scored 14.6 points.  That's his floor.  He scored at least 24 fantasy points in the five games prior to last week.

I also like to pair a RB with his defense.  This is a strong correlation play as well.  This week I'm pairing KENNETH DIXON ($4,200) with the BALTIMORE RAVENS ($2,950).  It looks as if Dixon has surpassed Terrence West as the lead back for the Ravens.  He has a decent floor thanks to his involvement in the passing game.  I like his ceiling this week as well.  He continues to get more usage in this offense which in theory should lead to more fantasy points.  The Baltimore defense is the best defense in the NFL at home, allowing just 13.1 points per game on their home turf.  Going up against a rookie QB in weather that should be less than ideal seems like a recipe for success.

So that leaves the TE position and one FLEX spot to fill.  I think a way to leverage my lineup off of the probable high LeVeon Bell ownership is to plug in the guy who could steal a TD or two (hopefully).  That guy is LADARIUS GREEN ($4,150).  Over the past three weeks, Green has nearly as many targets as Antonio Brown, and seven more than Bell.  If Green can keep Bell out of the endzone it will be a huge point swing in my favor.

At the flex, I'm sticking in DEMARYIUS THOMAS ($4,900).  The Broncos are going to forced to pass in their game against the Patriots.  Thomas has received double-digit targets in seven of his last eight games.  And he has some history against the Pats.  He remarkably was held to one catch on 13 targets last year.  Prior to that anomaly he had either scored a TD or topped 100 yards or both in his previous four meetings with the Evil Empire.  I like his chances to hit one of those marks on Sunday.

And there you have it.  This lineup could bomb if Kap and Hyde get run out the building in Atlanta.  And Taylor isn't known for his upside.  But I really like the way this lineup came together.  I think the ownership will be in my favor.  We'll see how it goes.