Wednesday, December 7, 2016

NBA INITIAL THOUGHTS, WEDNESDAY 12/7

What a beautiful 10-game slate this evening.  Especially compared to the crappy slate last night.  Note to self, next time you see the Utah Jazz with the highest team total on a slate, just fire up Netflix and binge watch Narcos.  Anyhow, tonight makes up for last nights bummer with some studs to play as well as a fantastic game to end the slate between the Warriors and Clippers.  We’re definitely gonna want some exposure to that game.  So let’s take a look at who stands out.

GUARDS
We know we want exposure to that GSW/LAC game.  I think the guy we want is gonna be CHRIS PAUL ($6,750).  This game has the highest over/under on the slate.  Paul is at home in a game that will be fast paced.  We can attack the Warriors from the PG position.  Paul, for his part, has been excellent lately and has done well against Golden State in the past.  He’s averaged 22 real life points, eight assists and five boards in his last eight games matching up against Steph Curry.

I don’t like the price on SEAN KILPATRICK ($5,300), but that may be just the thing that keeps people off him in a scintillating matchup against the Nuggets.  Denver is dead last in DvP to opposing SGs.  Nobody wants to spend $5300 for Kilpatrick, but tonight’s the night to do so.

I’ve been targeting PGs against Atlanta all year to some degree of success.  The Hawks rank 28th DvP against the position.  I’ve also been playing GORAN DRAGIC ($5,600) of late to some degree of success.  The Dragon has topped 40 fantasy points in three straight games and four of his last five.  I see no reason to fade either of these angles tonight when they come together.

If anybody caught the Warriors game the other night when Klay Thompson pumped in 60 actual points against Indiana, you may want to take a look at DEVIN BOOKER ($4,700) tonight.  He’s not consistent, but he has a high ceiling.  This game will be played at a very high pace and if Booker is hitting his shot he has 50-point upside.

It’s hard not to look at LOU WILLIAMS ($4,800) against the dreadful defense of the Rockets tonight.  He’s gone for 38 and 40 actual points his last two games.  This may be an instance of chasing points tonight though so he may be a good fade.

I hate to mention RODNEY MCGRUDER ($3,500), but we need to find value somewhere tonight.  He is getting all the minutes he can handle, averaging nearly 34 per game in his last eight games.  He doesn’t do a lot with those minutes, but he doesn’t need to do too much at his price.  Would love if he was min-priced.  May still have to pay the extra $500 anyways.

FORWARDS/CENTERS
As much as I like Chris Paul, I think I may actually like BLAKE GRIFFIN ($6,350) more.  He’s cheaper for one.  He has a deceptively good matchup against the Warriors who are 21st DvP against power forwards.  Blake has double-doubles in his past two games.  He’s destroyed Draymond Green in the past, averaging 25 points and 10 rebounds in their last nine games.  I’m gonna try to fit both Paul and Griffin into the lineup tonight.

For that matter, I like DEANDRE JORDAN ($5,650) as well.  He’s gone over 13 boards in five straight games.  Again, this is a pace up game for the Clips in a game that is projected to remain close.  If Jordan can stay on the floor he should reach value tonight.

The fastest game of the night may be in Brooklyn as the Nets host the Nuggets.  I love myself some WILL BARTON ($4,800) tonight.  He’s been starting and doing a little of everything.  He gets a dream matchup tonight as Brooklyn can’t defend any position.  He’s crushed value in all three games since returning from injury.  His price is going up but I’m gonna continue to play him until he doesn’t.  No chance I fade him tonight in a game against the Nets.

JABARI PARKER ($5,000) is in a good spot tonight as the Bucks travel to Portland.  He’s a little up-and-down, but he’s gone for over 20 actual points in two straight and had a double-double last time out.  The Blazers are not good on the inside, ranking dead last in DvP against the PF position.  Sign me up.

Just like Rodney McGruder, we find JOSH MCROBERTS ($3,500) as a guy who is getting more run lately for the injury depleted Heat.  He’s nothing special, and his ceiling isn’t that high, but he should be able to achieve value at his low price.

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