Thursday, December 1, 2016

NBA INITIAL THOUGHTS, THURSDAY 12/1

Six game slate tonight with a juicy matchup from a fantasy perspective to end the night when Houston travels to Golden State.  There are also a couple games that should probably be avoided in Orlando at Memphis and Miami at Utah.  For that matter, the Dallas at Charlotte game is a stinker as well.  Might be a night to go with a balanced lineup as value will probably be hard to come by on this slate.  Here are some of my initial thoughts.

GUARDS
Milwaukee seems to be in the best spot on the night, playing on the road in Brooklyn.  The Bucks are projected to score 110.5 points tonight which is a whopping 8.8 points over their season average.  They will also be pacing up, projected with an additional five possessions tongight.  They are favored by just 4.5 points so Vegas thinks the game will remain close.  Having said all that, this is a great spot for Matthew Dellavedova ($4,200).  The Nets are horrendous at defending every position on the court.  Delly should easily pay off his cheep pricetag in this matchup.

We’re gonna want a piece of that Houston/Golden State matchup.  Our best bets are at the guard positions.  With Steph Curry likely to be locking horns with the defense of Patrick Beverly, I think Klay Thompson ($5,200) makes for a nice play.  He’s been very consistent recently and has that potential we’re looking for in tournaments to post that big game.  Plus he’s facing the defense of James Harden ($8,100), which means no defense at all.  Harden, of course, is also a solid play.  He’s the most expensive guy on the slate, but we’ll be trying to find some value to fit him into the lineup.

That value may again come from Andrew Harrison ($3,500).  He’s in a tough spot tonight against an Orlando team that plays at a snails pace.  The Grizz are projected to score just 90 points tonight which is almost seven points below their season average.  So I’m hesitant to roster Harrison, especially coming off his big night last night.  But if I need the value, I may be forced to fit him in there.  The positives are that he’s likely to see all the minutes he can handle with Mike Conley out of the lineup.  He’ll also face the defense of DJ Augustin which is a guy we can attack.

FORWARDS
For the same reasons we like Dellavedova, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($7,100) seems like a must play in this matchup tonight.  He’s popped off for over 60 fantasy points in two of his last four games and seems like a good bet to do so again tonight.  I’m also gonna be all over Jabari Parker ($5,250) in this game.  Brooklyn has allowed the 2nd most points to opposing PFs this season.

In the same game on the other side of the ball, I’m looking at Trevor Booker ($4,800).  His price is getting to the point that I’m a little uncomfortable rostering him, but he gets a good matchup tonight against a Bucks team who struggles inside at times.  Booker has been solid of late, topping 40 fantasy points in two of his last four games.

Harrison Barnes ($5,100) is another guy who stands out tonight.  He seems under-priced.  He’s logging all the minutes he can handle this year, and his usage goes up when Dirk Nowitski is sidelined.

For value we may need to look at Troy Williams ($3,550) once again.  His matchup in Orlando isn’t ideal but like Harrison, he’s under-priced considering their current roles in the offense.

CENTER
The center that stands out to me at first glance is Brook Lopez ($5,450) against the Bucks.  If you haven’t noticed the trend yet, I’m gonna be targeting this game hard.  Milwaukee rank 29th in DvP against the center position.  Lopez, for his part, is one of the handful of centers who carry a high usage percentage.  He should be involved again tonight and against the Bucks defense that should translate into being productive.

You could make a case for Jon Henson ($3,900) on the other side of this matchup.  I’m never a fan of rostering Henson because he has litle ture usage in the Bucks offense.  Henson has gone for 38 and 25 fantasy points in his last two games though and his matchup tonight doesn’t get any better.

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