Saturday, December 3, 2016

NBA INITIAL THOUGHTS, SAT 12/3

An eight game slate on the docket tonight with Golden State/Phoenix closing out the night in a super fast paced game.  Let’s see what’s out there.

GUARDS
With Dwayne Wade scheduled to rest tonight, Jimmy Butler ($6,400) and Rajon Rondo ($5,200) will see a usage boosts and becomes an attractive options.  My concern is that this is a big slow down game for the Bulls against the Mavs in the second half of a back-to-back.  They are only projected to score 96.5 points which is nearly eight points below their season average.  I will most likely fit one of these guys into the lineup but I’m reluctant to get over-exposed in this spot.

I’m likely to go back to the well with Kyle Lowry ($6,000) again tonight.  I like to target PGs against the Hawks, who rank 25th in DvP against the postion.  Both teams played last night.  The spread is four points so Lowry should see his full run regardless.

I’m gonna want some exposure to that Warriors/Spurs game for sure.  Golden State is projected to score 123.5 points.  Problem being is that they are favored by 16.5 points.  I like the sport for Steph Curry ($6,950) but he’s the most expensive guard on the slate.  Klay Thompson ($5,200) is definitely more affordable, but he’s been disappointing of late.  Maybe this is the spot to get him on track.  Best bet for exposure may be on the other side of the court.  Devin Booker ($4,850) is getting good run lately but hasn’t been putting up value numbers.  Brandon Knight ($4,200) might be the way to go as he’s the cheapest option and may get a little more run with the 2nd unit if the game gets out of hand.  Figuring who to play in this matchup will likely be the key to cashing or not tonight.

For value I’m looking squarely at Troy Daniels ($3,000) against the Lakers with Vince Carter ruled out again tonight.

FORWARDS
One guy I’m gonna try and get in my lineup tonight is Gordon Heyward ($5,700).  He faces off against a Nuggets teams that will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.  Heyward has a usage rate of 28.1% which will only increase with George Hill doubtful and Rodney Hood questionable for the game.  If they both miss he’s a lock.  He’s probably a lock for me regardless against a poor defending Denver squad in what will be a pace up game for the Jazz.

I think this is a spot we can look to Andrew Wiggins ($5,100) tonight against Charlotte.  Wiggins has been mired in a slump recently, but he seems to be shooting his way out of it, scoring 19 actual points in two straight games.  He tallied 29 points against the Hornets a few weeks back and I see no reason why he can’t do it again.  Bonus is that his price is coming down to playable levels.

Jae Crowder ($4,750) finds himself in a prime spot tonight against the Sixers who can’t defend the SF position, ranking 29th.  He’s off his minute restriction, topping 35 minutes in consecutive games.

For value I’m looking at James Johnson ($3,700) against Portland in a pace up spot for the Heat.  Neck Beard has been seeing additional run with the injury to Justise Winslow and he’s be making the most of his additional court time, topping 35 fantasy points in consecutive games.

CENTER
This is a great bounce-back spot for Hassan Whiteside ($6,600) after his tough matchup with Rudy Gobert and the Jazz the other night.  It doesn’t get much better for a big man than a matchup with Portland who rank 23rd DvP against the center position.  I see it very unlikely that Whiteside does not hit value tonight.  He has clear 50 point upside and will be in my lineup tonight most certainly.

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